Valparaiso University researchers, in collaboration with experts from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, have published new findings regarding National Weather Service (NWS) guidelines for issuing "tornado emergencies." The study, detailed in a paper titled “Reflecting on a Decade of Formalized Tornado Emergencies” published this August in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, examines how NWS forecasters adhere to established criteria when upgrading a tornado warning to an emergency declaration. The core finding indicates that while forecasters often deviate from official criteria, their judgment generally identifies genuinely dangerous tornadoes, particularly those ranked EF3 and higher.
The NWS defines a tornado warning as a situation where a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar, posing a significant risk to lives and property. A tornado emergency, a higher-level declaration, signifies that a violent tornado has touched down in the forecaster’s watch area, representing a severe risk to life and property with catastrophic damages already confirmed. These emergency declarations are intended as a powerful communication tool to help the public understand the severity of an unfolding event. Meteorology student Eli Conklin ’27, a researcher on the project, stated, “Their response is what’s supposed to keep them safe.”
The guidelines for issuing tornado emergencies are non-compulsory, encouraging forecasters to use their own judgment and experience. This approach, alongside past changes to the guidelines and general communication issues, has led to some disagreements within the meteorological community regarding their interpretation and application. The broader goal of this research project is to identify potential revisions to these guidelines, aiming to create a consistent, universal framework that ensures accurate information reaches the public consistently.
To assess how closely forecasters followed the current system, Conklin and fellow meteorology major Evan Gustafson ’26 conducted a radar scan analysis. They reviewed every tornado emergency issued between 2014 and 2023. Their analysis involved examining factors such as rotational velocity, the tornado’s environment, debris signatures, and local population densities, though population density is no longer a part of current NWS guidelines. The student researchers discovered that many events declared as emergencies did not meet every guideline stipulated by the NWS for such a declaration.
Despite these deviations from the explicit guidelines, the majority of the emergencies analyzed were declared for tornadoes ranked EF3 and higher. This suggests that even when all boxes were not checked, the destructive potential of these storms was unequivocally present. Leanne Blind-Doskocil, staff meteorologist and head of the Valpo research team, stated that forecasters are "doing what they should be doing" even when not strictly adhering to guidelines.
The project will now move into future phases, including interviewing forecasters to understand their decision-making processes. This qualitative research aims to gather insights that can inform new guideline recommendations, ensuring they align more closely with effective real-world practices. Additionally, the project plans to research the impact of socioeconomic factors, such as the presence of mobile homes or lack of vehicle access, on the destructive potential a tornado poses to communities. Researchers also intend to gauge how the public understands and reacts to the different levels of tornado warnings.
Blind-Doskocil underscored the critical importance of treating all NWS warnings seriously. She emphasized that if the NWS issues any level of tornado warning, "they have a good reason." This is because forecasters are receiving reports of a tornado or observing rotation on radar. She advised residents to review safety plans upon learning about potential tornado activity days in advance and to avoid being outdoors when a storm is imminent.
Conklin and Gustafson presented their work at Valpo’s Symposium on Research and Creative Expression, where they received first prize for undergraduate posters. They also presented at the 32nd Conference on Severe Local Storms in Madison, WI, in August. Gustafson has since commenced graduate studies at the University of North Dakota. This research contributes directly to improving public safety communication during severe weather events, a vital concern for communities like Valparaiso.
