Valparaiso University researchers, in collaboration with the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, have published a new paper examining the guidelines used by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters for issuing tornado emergencies. The study, titled “Reflecting on a Decade of Formalized Tornado Emergencies,” investigates how consistently these guidelines are met when such a declaration is made.
Timely and effective communication during tornadoes can be critical for public safety. Eli Conklin ’27, a meteorology major and student researcher on the project, emphasized the importance of public understanding. Conklin noted that the tornado emergency declaration "can be a really powerful tool to help the public understand what’s going on."
The NWS defines a tornado warning as a situation where a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar, presenting a significant risk to lives and property. A tornado emergency, a higher-level alert, is declared when a violent tornado has touched down in a forecaster’s watch area, signifying a severe risk to life and property with catastrophic damages already confirmed. Area forecasters are advised to follow a set of NWS guidelines when deciding to issue this elevated warning.
However, these guidelines for issuing tornado emergencies are non-compulsory, allowing forecasters to use their own judgment and experience. This flexibility, along with past changes to the guidelines over the last twelve years and general communication challenges, has led to some disagreements within the meteorological community regarding their interpretation and application. The broader goal of the paper and its associated project is to identify how these guidelines can be revised to establish a consistent, universal framework. Such a framework aims to ensure that everyone in the community has access to accurate and understandable information during severe weather.
To assess how closely forecasters adhere to the current system, Conklin and fellow meteorology major Evan Gustafson ’26 conducted a radar scan analysis. Their research covered every tornado emergency issued between 2014 and 2023. They examined various factors, including rotational velocity, the tornado’s environment, debris signatures, and local population densities (though population density is no longer a formal NWS guideline). The analysis revealed that many of the events declared as emergencies did not meet all the specific guidelines outlined by the NWS. Despite this, the majority of these emergencies were declared for tornadoes ranked EF3 and higher, indicating a significant destructive potential was indeed present.
Leanne Blind-Doskocil, staff meteorologist and head of the Valparaiso University research team, commented on the findings. She stated that forecasters are generally making appropriate decisions, even when not strictly following every guideline. As a next step, the research team is interviewing forecasters to understand their decision-making processes, aiming to recommend new guidelines that align with current best practices.
Future phases of the project include investigating the impact of socioeconomic factors, such as the presence of families in mobile homes or those without vehicle access, on the destructive potential of a tornado. Researchers also plan to gauge how the public understands and reacts to the different levels of tornado warnings.
Regardless of the warning level, Blind-Doskocil stressed the importance of taking every NWS warning seriously. She advised that if the NWS issues any level of tornado warning, it is for a good reason, supported by tornado reports or radar indications of rotation. Residents are encouraged to review their safety plans if they learn about the potential for a tornado days in advance and to avoid being outdoors when a warning is in effect.
“Reflecting on a Decade of Formalized Tornado Emergencies” was published this August in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Conklin and Gustafson also presented their work at Valparaiso University’s Symposium on Research and Creative Expression, where they received first prize for undergraduate posters. They also presented at the 32nd Conference on Severe Local Storms in Madison, Wisconsin. Gustafson has since commenced graduate studies at the University of North Dakota.
